Minnesota Democrats Exposed’s incompetent blogger in chief, Luke Hellier, has been raising alarmist red flags about the state of crime in my City of Minneapolis that deserve to be smacked down. For example, he through out this nugget where he suggested that “facts are facts”:
We’ve already gone over the rape statistics where Luke Hellier accused me of lying, I proved him wrong with a few screenshots, then he claimed that he didn’t call me a liar. Now, let’s take a look at Minneapolis’ aggravated assault stats. Thanks to Bill for asking about this in the comments of a previous post. Bill asked:
What were the percentages/Ns for the others? Honestly an increase in rape is much more important than decreases in some of the crime you mention (aside from homicides).
I wouldn’t for a second claim that rape isn’t a serious crime and would like to know more about why that particular category of crime has had a bad year. But getting back to the narrative Luke Hellier is trying to push over at Minnesota Democrats Exposed, it’s pretty darn clear that the City of Minneapolis is having a good year over year in 2009, contrary to the Luke’s poorly supported claims. A spreadsheet of the data is included below, or click here for a better view. Green is good, as in down year over year. Row 4, in this case, divides the 11 months of data in 2009 into the 12 months of data in 2008. That’s clearly not a fair comparison. Row 5 takes the 11 months of 2009 data and spreads it out evenly for a 12th month. Crime in generally low in December, so that may or may not be a good estimate, but it’s a rough estimate of 12 months of 2009 crime data.
When I look at this data, I see year over year crime in the city down a projected 12%. That percentage comes from simply dividing the year to date’s 11 months of crime then multiplying by 12, which is actually very generous to Luke Hellier since December is historically a slow month for crime.
Luke Hellier also claims that aggravated assaults will be up year over year. Here’s a look at the historical month by month aggravated assaults in the City of Minneapolis. Guess when the dips occur:
So for Luke Hellier to be right about his aggravated assault claim, that particular category of crime would have to more than double its historical average this month.
It would be nice to see someone in the reality based community take over for Luke Hellier at Minnesota Democrats Exposed since Luke doesn’t appear to be part of the reality based community.