Scoring Ed's 2007 Technology Predictions

The year isn’t quite over yet, but I think we’re far enough along to score the 2007 tech predictions I made back in January.

A lot has happened in the last year on the web. More applications have moved to the web, and applications that were already on the web have become richer. Also, new forms of web based advertising have taken hold. Of course, that’s easy to say once it’s happened. Is that what I said back at the start of the year?

Let’s see how I did:

1. Flickr will add photo editing . . . beyond rotate.

Flickr Edit

Correct! As of December 5, this is possible, and it works very well. 10 Points.

2. Google will buy and integrate a web based PowerPoint competitor.

Correct! This went live on September 18th. It’s still pretty raw, but it’s definitely live within Google Docs. 10 points.

3. MySpace.com’s page views in Dec 2006 will be the same or smaller in Dec 2007.

MySpace 2007 Page Views

Close. I think this was my boldest prediction. MySpace was on a roll, but I got the feeling that it may be peaking. Looks like that peak came at the end of teh school year. A January 2007 vs 2008 time frame probably would have hit this. 5 points.

4. YouTube will add revenue sharing with video publishers.

Correct! This finally happened in May. I have a feeling that YouTube would say that this has been somewhat underwhelming to date, but at least they’re trying things. They did take this further just this week. 10 points.

5. Yahoo will acquire Blip.tv as to move them into revenue sharing with video publishers.

Incorrect. Yahoo didn’t buy blip.tv and frankly, didn’t do much to move forward with video in 2007. 0 Points.

6. Google will launch a client based Email / RSS Reader.

Correct. Google launched Gears in May, which allows for offline RSS reading. It doesn’t support offline email reading yet, but they’ve already stated that it will. 10 points.

7. MySpace and Facebook will launch mobile versions so students can get around blocked access at school.

Correct and Correct. 10 points.

8. Mobile advertising will take off, but with marginal results for advertisers.

“Take off” may be a bit bold for how far we’ve come, but being able to buy mobile targeted ads through AdWords probably makes the cut. 10 points.

9. Google Radio will have a restricted launch after securing ad space in major cities.

Correct. In fact, they’ve gone beyond that, opening things up to all advertisers – at least in the USA where they have inventory available. 10 points.

10. A US presidential candidate will be forced to drop out of the race based on the contents of a video published to YouTube.

Wrong. 0 Points.

I thought this ad from Mike Huckabee might do the trick, but I underestimated the power of Chuck Norris. I’ll never make that mistake again:

Overall, I’m giving myself a 7 out of 10 with 1/2 credit on my MySpace flattening prediction. If you think I’ve graded myself unfairly, let me know if the comments.

For the ones I got wrong, should I let them ride another year? Or, do you think they still have a shot in the last 3 weeks of 2007?

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